Every Market Tells a Story
A prediction market on PrometheX is built around a question about a real-world event — something like “Will Bitcoin hit $100k by June 2026?” or “Who will win the 2026 World Cup?” Each market goes through a clear lifecycle. Here’s what happens at each stage and what it means for you as a trader.Market Lifecycle
Open for Trading
The market is created with a question, possible outcomes (like Yes/No), and an end date. The APMM pool is funded with USDC and the CTF condition is prepared on-chain — trading starts immediately. Prices start near $0.50 for equal-weight markets, then quickly move as people trade.What you can do: Start trading right away.
Trading
The market is live and actively trading. People buy and sell shares, prices move based on supply and demand, and the market reflects the crowd’s best guess at the probability of each outcome.What you can do: Buy shares, sell shares, add or remove liquidity. This is the main trading period.
Settling
The real-world event has happened (or its deadline has passed). The oracle system verifies the outcome through a challenge window. During this time, anyone can dispute the assertion if they think it’s wrong.What you can do: Wait for the challenge window to close. Trading is paused during settlement.
In rare cases, a market may be voided (cancelled). If this happens, all positions are redeemed at equal value — you get back a fair share of the pool. For example, in a Yes/No market, both Yes and No tokens would each be worth $0.50.
What Each Status Means for You
| Status | Can you trade? | Can you claim? | What’s happening? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Created | Yes | No | Market just opened, prices are forming |
| Running | Yes | No | Active trading, prices moving with the crowd |
| Settling | No | No | Outcome asserted, waiting for challenge window |
| Ended | No | Yes | Market resolved — winners can claim |
| Voided | No | Yes (equal payout) | Market cancelled — all positions redeemed equally |
How Outcomes Work
Binary Markets (Yes / No)
Most markets have two outcomes. You buy Yes if you think something will happen, or No if you don’t.- Yes shares + No shares always sum to $1.00
- If Yes wins → Yes shares pay 1.00, No shares pay 0
- If No wins → No shares pay 1.00, Yes shares pay 0
Multi-Outcome Markets
Some markets have three or more options (e.g., “Who will win the election?” with multiple candidates). In these markets:- All outcome prices still add up to $1.00
- Only the winning outcome pays $1.00 per share
- All other outcomes pay $0
When Does a Market End?
A market resolves when:- The event happens — Someone asserts the correct outcome (e.g., “Bitcoin reached $100k”), and no one disputes it within the challenge window.
- The deadline passes — If the event hasn’t happened by the market’s end date, it can be resolved accordingly (e.g., “No, Bitcoin did not reach $100k by the deadline”).
Finding Good Markets
Here are some tips for choosing markets to trade:High Volume
Markets with lots of trading activity have better prices and smaller slippage (the gap between expected and actual price).
Clear Resolution
Look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria. “Will BTC close above 100k on June 30?” is better than “Will BTC be around 100k?”
Time Horizon
Markets with more time before resolution tend to have more price movement — and more trading opportunities.
Your Edge
Trade on topics where you have genuine knowledge or insight. That’s where you’re most likely to spot mispriced markets.